https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... 9741904898
Polecam całość.Many argue that sanctions are "ineffective". That’s false. They are already highly effective in undermining Russian military efforts and can be made even more efficient. They can guarantee that Russia loses this war if they are goal-oriented and not moral crusade-oriented
What would moral crusade oriented sanctions look like? Inflict economic damage, so that population revolts and overthrows the regime. That's an imbecile idea that never really worked and probably never will
Goal-oriented sanctions look differently. Maximise systemic shock in order to paralyse technological chains. That will lead to a military defeat, which will entail the fall of regime. That's a great idea which usually works. It worked out with the USSR for example
Two previous Russian regimes - Russian Empire and the USSR - fall exactly this way. Regime launched a small victorious war against an obviously inferior enemy, considering that the victory is guaranteed. Regime can't shut up about how weak and pathetic the enemy is
And yet, this hubris works against you. With first defeats from an enemy whom you described as so much inferior, your mythos (=power) crumbles. You're very unlikely to survive that, even if no enemy soldier ever set foot on your territory. That's how Russian Empire and USSR fell
In both cases Russia was materially far superior than its enemy. It had more people, more resources, stronger industry. So if Russia respected its enemy just a little, it could have won. But it didn't respect them at all. Russian disrespect of Japan for example looks stunning
(...)Russian defeats - which were materially speaking not that impressive - had devastating moral effect. Empire had men, had resources, had industry. But it's mythos was destroyed. Absolutism fell and very quickly the monarchy fell, too
Ergo. Poverty does not topple regime. Material sufferings do not topple regime. But military defeat in a small victorious war absolutely does. This is typical for Russian history and if you consider history of other regions, like Latin America, it starts looking as a general rule